The same argument has taken place since Amazon went public…it’s overvalued.

During that time, Amazon has continued to climb…not without some shocking bear market close call sickening declines.

As of this morning, Amazon is one of the 10 largest companies in the S&P, passing both JP Morgan (saved by the government) and Walmart.

$AMZN gained $36 billion to crack the 10 largest companies in the $SPX. Leaped $JPM and $WMT. $SPY

— Ryan Detrick (@RyanDetrick) Jul. 24 at 07:33 AM

The ‘cloud’ is their oil field and they tap and manage it best so I know they will pass Exxon.

Johnson and Johnson is an American healthcare legend but just can’t grow like Amazon so they will be passed.

Apple has figured out China so they will be the hardest to pass.

While Google has maps and autonomous cars, I don’t feel they are a match for Bezos when it comes that time they are neck and neck.

I don’t even know what $GE does…let’s just say too diversified to hold off Amazon.

Same with Berkshire, too diversified unless Bezos goes cold.

As for Wells Fargo, they have always had an unfair advantage and moats. Those moats will keep disappearing over the next 5 years.

Facebook might put up the biggest fight once they figure out ecommerce.

Acquisitions will be the biggest wildcard as every company on this list can buy most of the other Fortune 500 companies.

I assume the comments as always will focus on Amazon’s lower revenues and lack of profit. That argument has only mattered a few times in 18 years. In 2000, it was all about the balance sheet which is not a problem in 2015. I am excited to look back at this list in 2020 and see how right and wrong I got this.

As for my wildcard to make this list in 2020 (not chinese) …I pick Nike.

Disclosure – Long Apple $AAPL, Amazon $AMZN, and Nike $NKE